What’s a good score to declare on? Haven’t the foggiest
Alan Gardner15-Feb-2021The fourth innings of a Test match can be a pretty complicated business. Besides the target (which is sometimes only a “target”), you’ve got to factor in the state of the pitch, whether the fielding side has the attack to exploit conditions, whether the chasing side has the maverick talent to upend the odds, the history of the ground, the forecast for the weather, who’s sitting where in the dressing room, and the manifold opinions of former players, armchair pundits and the social media hordes.We all know instinctively that chasing over 300 is going to be hard (or do we?) but now there are the data wonks and their gizmos to contend with, too, bespoke algorithms pumping out gobbets of win probability throughout the game. It can all get a little bit “60% of the time they win every time”, to draw on the wisdom of Brian Fantana.Anyway, the corollary of ordinary lay cricket folk having to engage with a bit of maths is that the back end of the third innings, with its mandatory declaration speculation, can trigger some baffling behaviour – cricket’s equivalent of “silly season”, if you will. The devil makes work for idle fingers, and that is never more apparent than in the case of certain ex-internationals with access to a smartphone and a Twitter account.Take Shane Warne, for instance. Warne has form for continuing to sledge from the commentary box, and he was quick to call out England’s “cautious and timid” approach on the fourth day of the first Chennai Test (a Test which, for reference, England went on to win by 227 runs with a session and a half to spare). Those who can remember as far back as, erm, last month, might recall Warne also demanding Australia get on with it and declare at the Gabba, roughly 24 hours before Rishabh Pant and India’s third XI forcibly retired the ground’s cherished nickname for the foreseeable.
What is going on with your cricket team ? What on Earth are they doing just letting the game drift ? Why aren’t they bowling ? England wouldn’t want to not be able to bowl India out now after batting to long in both innings !! https://t.co/gfhjxyeGLr
— Shane Warne (@ShaneWarne) February 8, 2021